{"id":2931,"date":"2019-03-04T12:19:13","date_gmt":"2019-03-04T12:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/?p=2931"},"modified":"2019-03-04T12:19:16","modified_gmt":"2019-03-04T12:19:16","slug":"cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Cedi depreciation not strange?&#8230; be frank with the public\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Reading this article (<a href=\"https:\/\/awakenewsonline.com\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-deputy-finance-minister\/\">Cedi depreciation not strange \u2013 Deputy Finance Minister<\/a>)posted on awakenewsonline.com tells us that the NPP government thinks it is smarter than all Ghanaians and whatever reasoning they assign to the rapid depreciation of the cedi will suffice.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What they\nfail to appreciate is that in their effort to mop up the over-supply of cedis\nin the system, they have clearly run out of tools for reducing the volume of\ncedis in circulation.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By allowing\nthe free fall of the cedi over the short term, they literally force the\nbusiness community and everyone else to buy the dollar at a higher than normal\nprice.&nbsp; Their inflation control strategy,\nwhich is what this whole thing is, sucks.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Playing make believe with the facts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Annoyingly\nthey want us to believe that it is because they made a public announcement to\nthe effect that they are going to exit IMF assistance; and the fact that\nforeign investors generally repatriate their earnings out of the economy at\nthis time of the year that this situation seems to have been aggravated more\nthan would have been the case.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This\nreasoning is why we say they think no one else understands the workings of the\ncurrency market and how inflation is managed.&nbsp;\nLet&#8217;s look at their reasoning more closely.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It appears they\nhave no tools for addressing the fiscal deficit within the economy.&nbsp; They have tried everything at their disposal\nalready. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They introduced\nspecial taxes, increasing stamp rate, fraudulently increasing the VAT while\npretending to have held it constant, imposing new tariffs and increasing excise\nduty on certain goods and hiking the tax on luxury items etc.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In spite of\nall these measures, they still could not meet revenue targets so as much as\nthey would want to hype it, the fact is the revenue end of the equation is not\nbalancing. This means rent available to government continues to dwindle.&nbsp; Their \u201cHail Mary\u201d: allow the free fall of the\ncedi!&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\ninteresting thing is they are also claiming the economic fundamentals are solid\nand national reserves continue to be sustainable.&nbsp; The way we see it, if your economic fundamentals\nare as solid as you claim, then a temporary support of the cedi by selling off\nreserves should not be a problem.&nbsp; But\nclearly, that is just their spin on what is happening. &nbsp;The fact is Ghanaians are holding too tightly\nonto their monies hence the over-supply of cedi will continue to fuel\ninflation.&nbsp; And this is why the\ngovernment will with agility hop onto monetary tools such as allowing the free\nfall of the cedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why hold reserves?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the only\nreason government will hold onto forex reserves rather than defend its currency\nwhen it has some overall macro objective such as inflation control it seeks to\nattain or when it actually has too little forex that trying to support its\ncurrency would actually backfire and fuel a bigger run than the managed run\nwhich results from not announcing the policy objective.&nbsp; And the fundamental reason locals and\ninvestors would hold onto currency and not send it into the banking system is\nwhen they lack confidence in the system or when on the open market, they can\nget earned rent at more competitive rate than is being offered by the banking\nsystem.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We posit that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/29\/bog-rules-out-fixed-exchange-rate-regime-to-check-cedi-fall\/\">BoG<\/a> is not being transparent in its policy objective of allowing the free fall of the cedi.\u00a0 This fundamentally is because they are trying to mop up excess cedi in the system, traders and the business community would immediately seize on that to hike prices which, we should say, is the immediate objective for the exercise.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hence using\nexchange rate fluctuation as an inflation control measure is not always\nsmart.&nbsp; We also think that the government\ncannot be telling the truth about foreign currency reserves simply because the\ninternational commodities market is unpredictable and cannot be relied upon to\ngenerate enough liquidity to keep the system afloat.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Be frank with the public<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why we think\nHon. Deputy Minister for Finance and his boss need to <a>be\nfrank with the public <\/a>is that if investors who invest in the bond market\nrepatriate their earning without thinking to reinvest, then it means they must\nhave better use for their money or are not sure that if they retain their\nmonies in the Ghanaian economy, they would not be losing out. And that in our\nopinion is the lie this whole narrative is based on.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have a\nfundamental internal flaw in the economy which makes investors\u2019 tolerance level\nlow and this in turn points out that, the much-hyped economic fundamentals are\nnot as sound as they will have us believe.&nbsp;\nKen and his team have to return to the drawing table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are not\nabout to suggest possible way out because truly we do not know what their\ninternal challenge is.&nbsp; Suffice it to\nsay, you cannot build the economy on lies, sooner or later, the exchange rate\nwill expose you.&nbsp; If they are counting on\nthe new-found oil to save their sorry \u2018asses\u2019, they will have to think\nagain.&nbsp; Once Venezuela is resolved, the oil\nprice is unlikely to continue climbing up; so, they need contingencies for that\neventuality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>From: NDC Professionals Forum\nInternational North-America<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Reading this article (Cedi depreciation not strange \u2013 Deputy Finance Minister)posted on awakenewsonline.com tells us that the NPP government thinks it is smarter than all <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/\" title=\"\u2018Cedi depreciation not strange?&#8230; be frank with the public\u2019\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[55,395],"class_list":["post-2931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-from-ghana-western-region","tag-bog","tag-ndc-proforum"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u2018Cedi depreciation not strange?... be frank with the public\u2019 - Apt News Ghana<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The fact is Ghanaians are holding too tightly onto their monies hence the over-supply of cedi will continue to fuel inflation.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Cedi depreciation not strange?... be frank with the public\u2019 - Apt News Ghana\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The fact is Ghanaians are holding too tightly onto their monies hence the over-supply of cedi will continue to fuel inflation.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Apt News Ghana\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-04T12:19:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-03-04T12:19:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/cedi-to-dollar-Google-Search.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"744\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"363\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Editor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/04\/cedi-depreciation-not-strange-be-frank-with-the-public\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Editor\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aptnewsghana.com\/#\/schema\/person\/26a4fa2e1ccac2c31f11b3186d0240fa\"},\"headline\":\"\u2018Cedi depreciation not strange?&#8230; 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